March 2023 data showed some surprising numbers, even in light of current interest rates. Statistics from March continue to reinforce that the Denver market is strong, active, and fruitful. Despite tumultuous interest rates, buyers have gotten on board with the rates and are willing to dip into savings if it means closing on their dream home. Weekly data shows the first two weeks of March brought the highest and best odds of selling. It was quickly followed by a cool down due to school district spring breaks; however, the odds of selling for the month settled at around 63.4%, a slight increase from the previous month.

We are continuing to experience a compression cycle, and historically the Denver compression cycle lasts from February to May when we have more buyers than homes to sell them. However, based on the numbers from mid-March, we saw inventory creep up a bit, suggesting that the compression cycle may not extend past April and that we can anticipate an influx in inventory.

In March, days on market decreased across the board. The average days on market decreased by 22.92% to 37 days. When eliminating drastic outliers, the median days on market decreased by 60% to just 10 days on market.

Inventory remained low throughout the month, with new listings flying off the market and under contract within days. This year, we had more listings come to the market in March than we have historically before, as sellers have caught on that buyers are starting to house hunt earlier in the year.

The Deal on Bidding Wars

The question burning in everyone's mind is, "Are bidding wars back?" The short answer is yes. Depending on the state of the home, we're seeing folks offer anywhere between $50,000 and $100,000 over list price. Currently, homes priced correctly, staged, and move-in ready are flying off the shelves, with over 45% of the month's homes going under contract within seven days.

The long answer is also yes, but not to the degree we experienced during covid and not everywhere in the Metro area. Right now, the more desirable landlocked suburbs are in the northwest district of the Metro area and along the southwest corridor of Interstate 25 towards Littleton. Homes that may require work, are priced too high, or are in a lack-lustrous location can be anticipated to sit on the market for a chunk of time. Homes priced right and marketed well are selling 2.25 times faster than homes that came onto the market priced too high (those homes ended in a price reduction). Sellers who take the time to price it right and stage the property will be rewarded by buyers willing to reach the top end of their budget or offer concessions in order to present a winning offer.

When it comes to million dollar plus homes, those turnkey properties are seeing multiple highly competitive offers, well outside the average increase we see in the market for homes under 1 million dollars. Why? Above the million dollar price point, folks who can purchase these homes are often not affected or dependent on current interest rates - nearly 40% of transactions at this price point can make an 'all-cash offer.'

Navigate the holidays

May is a busy time for many folks. We kick off the month with Cinco De Mayo and Mother's Day, and then roll into Memorial Day, and don't forget about all of the graduations and celebrations. Historically, during a 3-day weekend, we see around a 30-40% decrease in showings and pending transactions. Religious holidays outside a 3-day weekend, like Easter, can anticipate at least a 20% decline in showing activity and at least a 15-20% decrease in closings.

Use this knowledge about holidays to your advantage. If you're a buyer looking to stand out from the competition, visit some open houses on those three-day weekends. Everyone else will be out of town or busy at a celebration, meaning less competition for your future dream home. The best part about the seasonality of the market? Predictability and peace of mind. Now you can work with your agent to prepare a top-notch strategy that will help ensure you accomplish your goals, no matter the time frame.