Early next week, we will bring you our monthly wrap-up of Denver Metro Market Statistics, so watch for those soon...but in the meantime, here is an interesting look from a national perspective.
FromJonathan Smoke, the chief economist of realtor.com, whoanalyzes real estate data and trends to develop market insights:
"It's the perennial question, and one that both consumers and the media have asked me incessantly over the past few weeks: Whenis the best time of year to buy a home?
The questioninspired me to look at theseasonal patterns for supply and demanda couple of weeks ago, revealing the upper hand that buyerswho are willing to close on a home in off-peak times like the fall and winter might have.
But upon closer inspectionI foundthis: Septembercould be the best month all year to sign a contract to buy a home.
Why? Multiple factors are coming together to make this September unique.
The first factor issupply.Buyers will now have more choices than they have had for the past 10months. According to our daily survey of visitors torealtor.com, the single biggest factor holding back buyers from making a purchase all year long has been the inability to find a home that meets their needs. That's becauseboth existing- and new-home supply has been tightall year. Happily,listings inventory on realtor.com has been growing all spring and summer, apattern that continued into August. As of the third week in August, inventory was at 1.91 million units, up 3% from July and up 21% from January.
Normally inventorypeaks in August and begins to slow as the nights grow longer. But this year the typical seasonal decline will start a bit later. There will be more choices in September than any other month in 2015.
The second factor isdemand. Nowthat school has started, demand has already started to decline. You can see the evidence in the nonseasonally adjustedpending home sales data reported by the National Association of Realtors last week. The nonseasonal estimated number of new contract signings in July was down 12% from June. This kind ofdecline is entirely normal for July, sincemost contracts signed in July won't close until after school starts.
And, of course, with less competition for the most listings all year, pricing power weakens as inventory takes longer to sell.
The seasonal pattern to pricing and median age of inventory tells us that the best deals come in the dead of winter. Signing a contract in September will likely mean you could close before Thanksgiving. That means September buyers won't have as much moving hassle from winter weather, since for most of the country the threat of snow and ice picks up in December.
The third, and final, factor: thecurrent low level of mortgage rates. Thirty-year fixed rates ended last week under 4% as a result of therecent stock market declinessometimes a little turbulence in one area stabilizes others.
Why pay more later when you can pay less today? The average 30-year fixed rate touched 4.2% in June but hassince pulled back and danced around 4%. Rates are likely to be closer to that June peakby the end of the year. So signing a contract to buy a home soon wouldenable buyers to lock in today'slower rates before they start their long-awaited ascent." - Realtor.com
With low rates, more choices, less competition, lower prices, and the chance to move before œharsh winter enters our regular vocabulary againthis September sounds pretty enticing, especially if you're ready and have been looking but unable to buy so far this year.
Check back here next week to find out if these factors are also playing out in the Denver Metro Market based on the August 15 stats...our prediction is yes, they are...and we do think that September is starting off at a really great pace, with Live Urban agents putting many buyers Under Contract during the first few days of the month.
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